world news - 27.12.2004

USA: Sawmills expect 2005 modest decline

Americans will use more lumber during 2004 than any time in history, thanks to strong housing markets and an improving economy. While demand will fall back moderately in 2005, it will still be a solid year for lumber, according to a forecast prepared by Western Wood Products Association.

The association estimates lumber demand in 2004 will increase 4.8 percent to 59.7 billion board feet, shattering the previous record of 57 billion board feet set in 2003. It is the sixth time in the past eight years that lumber demand has set a new record. Lumber used in residential construction is expected to reach an all-time high of 25.6 billion board feet.

With interest rates expected to rise in 2005, demand is forecast to dip by 4.2 percent to 57.2 billion board feet. Even with the decline, the volume would be the second highest ever. WWPA said housing starts should total 1.8 million for 2005, down 6 percent.

Lumber production at Western sawmills is on pace to reach 18.3 billion board feet in 2004, a 12-year high for the region. WWPA predicts production in the Southern U.S. at 17.5 billion board feet, a new record volume. In 2005, lumber production in both the West and South are expected to each drop by about 3 percent.

(WWPC)


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