world news - 21.09.2007
Canada: Huge drop in timber supply predicted
The latest timber supply analysis that models the impacts of the
pine beetle epidemic released by the Ministry of Forests suggests that
the mid-term timber supply could drop to 20.5 to 25.1 million cubic
metres in the B.C. Interior. That's a 33 to 45 per cent drop from
the original timber supply of 37.6 million cubic metres before the
allowable annual cut was increased to control and salvage mountain pine
beetle-killed timber. Where earlier analysis mapped out timber
supply drops for a handful of areas, including Prince George, this
analysis covers 20 timber supply areas covering a large stretch of the
province's northern and Interior regions. The drop in the
mid-term timber supply -— from 10 to 50 or 60 years out -— is even
greater when compared to the actual increased level of harvest in the
Interior of 45.9 million now, a decrease of 45 to 55 per cent. Based
on the assumed shelf life of the timber for producing sawlogs used in
making lumber and plywood, the analysis indicates the timber supply
could start declining in some timber supply areas in four to five years. "With
an insect that is affecting trees and killing trees that are a high
percentage of your timber harvesting land base, you're going to have
impacts, particularly in the mid-term," B.C.'s chief forester Jim
Snetsinger said Tuesday. In the short-term you try to do the best
you can to harvest as much economic value as you can, said Snetsinger.
So, the question will be how to manage the mid-term timber supply and
the basket of dead fibre left behind. That's where new technology and
new uses for fibre, perhaps a bio-energy sector, could help, he said. Although
the 32-page report does not provide numbers for decrease of individual
timber supply areas, maps in the report show that the hardest hit areas
are the Quesnel, Vanderhoof and Burns Lake areas. The report
analyzes two scenarios: focusing all short-term logging in
pine-dominated stands, or avoiding logging in beetle-killed pine
dominated stands. Under the first scenario, the mid-term timber
supply falls to 25.1 million cubic metres, and the Quesnel, Vanderhoof
and Burns Lake areas are hardest hit, with their timber supply
projected to fall between 41 per cent to 72 per cent. Under this
scenario, the Prince George area's timber supply is projected to fall
21 to 30 per cent. Under the second scenario, where logging
beetle-killed stands is avoided, many more areas are projected to be
hit harder by mid-term timber supply decreases of 41 per cent to 72 per
cent. They also include the Morice, Bulkley, Mackenzie, Williams Lake,
100 Mile House, Kamloops, Merritt, Invermere, Cranbrook and Boundary
areas. It's why it's important to focus harvesting in pine-leading stands of greater than 70 per cent, said Snetsinger. The
province is monitoring whether forest companies are concentrating
logging pine-leading stands and, in a report released this summer,
determined that for the most part the performance is pretty good, said
Snetsinger. The report also raises the issue of younger pine --
replanted, second-growth forests -— being attacked by beetles, but does
not include the impacts in its analysis. The attack on younger pine
could reduce mid-term harvest levels even further, the report notes. Other findings summarized in the report include: --
The outbreak peaked in the summer of 2005 when about 139 million cubic
metres of pine was killed. The peak included the Vanderhoof, Quesnel,
Burns Lake and Prince George areas. -— It's estimated that there
is 530 million cubic metres of standing dead pine in 2007, about 40 per
cent of the pine in the province and 12 per cent of the total
provincial timber basket. -— It's estimated that there will be
about 95 million cubic metres of red-attacked pine in the summer of
2007, and that the beetles will continue to kill more than 80 million
cubic metres of pine per year until 2009. -— After that the
infestation is expected to subside rapidly, and within 10 years, it
will likely kill less than five million cubic metres. Forests
Minister Rich Coleman observed the infestation had grown in size and
complexity. "This report maps out potential timber supply scenarios and
refreshes our data package for planning sustainable forests and
communities in the future," he said. NDP forestry critic Bob
Simpson had some harsh words for the analysis, calling it a whitewash
since it had not accounted for young pine stands that are being killed,
other pests, fire and environmental considerations. He said while
he believed the analysis didn't amount to a "hill of beans," it still
indicated a catastrophic decrease in timber supply of 50 per cent under
what he called a best-case-scenario. Simpson said the analysis
needs more robust research to model the impacts, as well as a concerted
on-the-ground effort to determine timber inventory. The timber
inventory should be well-funded in a partnership between the province
and the federal government to the tune of $20 million to $30 million,
said Simpson, MLA for Cariboo North. Council of Forest Industries
vice-president Doug Routledge told the Vancouver Sun that industry
believes the four— to eight-year shelf life forecast is realistic but
at the pessimistic end of the time frame. "They base their assumptions
on sawlogs, but there are definitely other uses for it," Routledge
said, referring to the potential for biofuel. "We need to explore
non-lumber fibre uses."
See also:
- — Brazilian furniture producers shift focus to flooring
- — Severe bark beetle attacks in Sweden
- — Law against illegal logging to be made tougher
- — Brazilian wooden furniture exports reduced to $149.7 million in January-July 2007
- — Stora Enso sells out in North-America
